来自 财经专栏 2019-10-09 07:08 的文章
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Over the past month, global bond yields have continued to move higher, with theyield on US 10-year Treasury bills (possibly the most important price in thefinancial universe) finally breaching the 2016 high of 2.64%. While yields havesubsequently retreated a little, the risk has increased that they now movetowards 3% - the top of the range seen over recent years.


Recap of our proposed approach; endogeneity and financial integration

    We became more positive on the REITs in July last year upgrading WFD, VCX,SCG, GPT and DXS. Encouragingly, the REITs returned 11.2% through to 31December, well ahead of the broader market ( 7.7%) i.e. 350bps ofoutperformance. This was supercharged by the WFD bid into year-end asexpected. The retail REIT thesis was predicated on: i) the top five malls for eachREIT are typically 37-73% of capital diluting the impact from portfolio tails;ii) when the sector is back at NTA we believe the market is underappreciatingpotential for alternate use; and iii) strong pricing for quality assets. Whilst thisdeal never printed, we have seen very strong pricing for direct asset transactionsin the past six months. With the January bond led sell-off reopening some ofthese value opportunities, we maintain our positive sector call.





























    As financial markets become more integrated with the real global economy, endogeneity betweenmacroeconomic variables and market prices has increased, making causality effects and thetransmission channels more difficult to assess.

太阳城娱乐城,    After resurgent strength in commodity prices over the past three months, weupgrade our commodity and equity earnings forecasts. The biggest change is alift in investor sentiment towards global and Chinese demand in 2018. Weupgrade near-term forecasts to reflect these events and expect consensusupgrades to support the stocks during upcoming results season. Further out,many of our key theses, such as downside to bulks on falling Chinese steeldemand, are intact.

  The global economic outlook remains supportive for financial markets. Whilst it is clear that the US economy has slowed, the rest of the world is continuing to perform solidly, with growth in Emerging Markets leading the way. Inflation remains relatively benign and we expect that monetary policy around the world will remain quite stable

    For instance, short-term real interest rates are a conventional explanatory factor for the US dollarwhich, in turn, (a) is a key factor for the price of oil and commodity prices in general, and (b) alsoaffects monetary policy and global inflation, hence interest rates.

    Airlines’ forward schedule matters. In our last three editions of Follow the seats,we were spot on for 22 out of the 28 travel trends for China tourism; five were atleast in the same direction; and only one (for China-Thailand) was vastlydifferent, due to a larger-than-expected contraction in China-Korea seats.

  with only gradual incremental change through 2007.

    How to solve this? We combine our insights with quantitative tools as statistical analysis enablesus to examine a very broad universe of assets and data and so determine potential opportunities.Moreover, we believe that, by incorporating quantitative tools in the research process, we arebetter able to avoid the cognitive biases that can lead to systematic errors in decision making.


    Crude oil and US real interest rates: The forgotten link

  The US is on track to achieve a soft landing. The slow down in housing has affected domestic demand in the economy, and US GDP has slowed from over 3.5% growth for the first half of 2006 to around 2.5% for the past 6 months. Despite the general slow down, the positive signs are that US employment remains relatively solid and consumer expenditure is doing well. Business investment has been disappointing over the past 6 months, however there are indications that this maybe turning around. Recent data releases in April and early May for factory orders, business confidence and inventory to shipments ratios are turning stronger. The risk of the US slow down turning into an outright recession exists, but at this stage we would place only a small probability on such a risk.

    As the oil price is also a reflection of speculative flows, the US real interest rate acts as anopportunity cost (just as it does for other risk assets). We believe that this reflects the fact that –as commodities yield zero in real terms – demand for commodities increases when the realfunding rate falls low or turns negative.


汇丰晋信。    In addition, a fall in US real interest rates generally means a weaker US dollar which is alsopositive for commodity prices (and vice versa).

  Outside of the US, the economic picture is positive. European activity continues to roll on at a solid pace with European GDP likely to expand by close to 3% this year. Europe is seeing strong demand across both consumer and business activity. Unemployment is declining in Europe and is supporting general confidence. In Japan, economic data remains somewhat sluggish. The economy is likely to expand at around 2%, which is not bad growth for Japan, but with a general improvement in structural conditions in Japan, at this stage of the cycle Japan should be growing at an even stronger rate.

    Charts 1and 2show the strong historical relationship among US real interest rates, the US dollar,and the WTI oil price: for instance, the sharp rise in US real interest rates in 2013-2014triggereda fall in WTI oil prices, which was exacerbated by OPEC’s new production policy in 2015.Thus, on a first look, the strong co-movement between the US dollar and WTI crude oilappears sufficient to quantify the current price of crude oil and, using BNP Paribas forecasts forthe major EM and DM FX rates, project the direction of WTI in the coming months.


  Emerging market activity is solid, led by China which has seen GDP expand at over 11% in the first quarter. India, the rest of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe are

  also performing well. The challenge in emerging markets is to contain the level of growth in order to prevent overheating. We have seen numerous tightening measures this year in China and India where interest rates were lifted and bank reserve requirements tightened. And rates are higher in Mexico and a number of other economies. We see little risk of a major deterioration in emerging markets growth as generally policy is not restrictive in any of the major economies and with some exceptions like India, there are no real threats from rising inflation.


  The outlook for equity markets is positive. In a soft landing environment that we are seeing in the US, markets have historically done well. This is because in a soft landing, interest rates stay steady or even decline and growth whilst being softer is still generally positive. This is what we are seeing in the US with first quarter profit results showing year on year growth of around 8%, significantly ahead of investor expectations which prior to the earnings season were for 3% growth. Outside of the

  US, conditions are even stronger due to better growth prospects but with relatively contained interest rate policy. Valuation levels remain reasonable. Whilst we have seen strong equity market performance and many markets are reaching new highs, earnings growth has also been strong around the globe. In China, for example, profits are growing well in excess of 20%.


  Thus, as the level of earnings has broadly kept up with the level of price movement, valuation levels remain reasonable. Also, interest rates are relatively low, offering little competition to equities. Significant mergers and acquisition activity as well as private equity transactions are providing a significant boost to liquidity and equity market demand. Within equities, our geographical preference is for Asia, Europe and emerging markets where we expect the strongest earnings performance and also an attractive mix of valuations. We are not negative on US or Japan in absolute terms, it is just that we expect them to lag the other regions.


  We expect bond yields to range trade over the coming few months. US bonds have discounted the slow down in US activity. For yields to decline much further we would

  need to expect a recession, which is not our core outlook. The upside for yields is also quite limited in the near term with little pressure on inflation and the US economy still adjusting to the housing down turn. Hence, our base case outlook that bonds will generally perform in line with yield, with little prospect of meaningful capital movement.

  大家揣度在今后的多少个月股票收益率将有限支撑震荡。美国家公期货已经反映出经济缓慢的地方。收益率一连下滑必要一轮经济衰退,但那并非咱们的为主预期。方今股票(stock)报酬率的回涨空间也相比较单薄,因为来自通胀的压力一丝一毫而United States经济正在对房产市廛的低迷作调度。所以,我们的主题境念是证券表现将挑寿春与报酬率一致,不太会现身实质性的波动。

  In the foreign exchange markets, the US dollar has continued to struggle as growth has underperformed in the US. However, the US dollar is relatively cheap against European currencies and also against most of its major Latin American trading partners. With the downturn in the US well discounted by investors, we do not expect

  the dollar to suffer major weakness in the near term. The clear opportunity in foreign exchange, in our view, remains in Asia where Asian currencies are cheap. These economies are doing well with huge positive current account balances and foreign exchange reserve accumulations. The main factor standing in the way of more rapid Asian currency appreciation is that Asian central banks do not like to see significant currency rate adjustments over short periods of time. They will though accept a gradual adjustment as we have seen over the past year in China for the Renminbi, as well as Korea, India and most of the Asean economies. We expect Asian currencies to continue their gradual appreciation over the medium term.



  美国  回顾

  In April, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.3%. However, it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average that stole the headlines as it passed the 13,000 level for the first time in its history. The index was supported by strong earnings from its small number of components. The broader market indices also benefited from the positive trend to corporate earnings. The economic outlook provided further positive momentum towards the end of the month as the Federal Reserve’s ‘beige book’ of economic conditions noted that the US economy had shown modest growth and that consumer prices had been largely stable, conditions that are consistent with US rates remaining on hold. The end of the month saw data released that showed US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, below the forecast for 1.8%. Despite the weakness of the data, its strong consumer spending component helped to negate part of the disappointment.





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