来自 财经专栏 2019-10-09 07:08 的文章
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汇丰晋信

Over the past month, global bond yields have continued to move higher, with theyield on US 10-year Treasury bills (possibly the most important price in thefinancial universe) finally breaching the 2016 high of 2.64%. While yields havesubsequently retreated a little, the risk has increased that they now movetowards 3% - the top of the range seen over recent years.

  资金财产布满

Recap of our proposed approach; endogeneity and financial integration

    We became more positive on the REITs in July last year upgrading WFD, VCX,SCG, GPT and DXS. Encouragingly, the REITs returned 11.2% through to 31December, well ahead of the broader market ( 7.7%) i.e. 350bps ofoutperformance. This was supercharged by the WFD bid into year-end asexpected. The retail REIT thesis was predicated on: i) the top five malls for eachREIT are typically 37-73% of capital diluting the impact from portfolio tails;ii) when the sector is back at NTA we believe the market is underappreciatingpotential for alternate use; and iii) strong pricing for quality assets. Whilst thisdeal never printed, we have seen very strong pricing for direct asset transactionsin the past six months. With the January bond led sell-off reopening some ofthese value opportunities, we maintain our positive sector call.

 

悲观

比较悲观

中性

比较乐观

乐观

资产类别

 

债券

 

现金

股票

 

债券*

 

欧洲/

日本

澳大利亚/

加拿大

美国/亚洲/全球新兴市场

 

股票

 

美国

 

日本/香港

亚洲/全球新兴市场/欧洲/

 

    As financial markets become more integrated with the real global economy, endogeneity betweenmacroeconomic variables and market prices has increased, making causality effects and thetransmission channels more difficult to assess.

太阳城娱乐城,    After resurgent strength in commodity prices over the past three months, weupgrade our commodity and equity earnings forecasts. The biggest change is alift in investor sentiment towards global and Chinese demand in 2018. Weupgrade near-term forecasts to reflect these events and expect consensusupgrades to support the stocks during upcoming results season. Further out,many of our key theses, such as downside to bulks on falling Chinese steeldemand, are intact.

  The global economic outlook remains supportive for financial markets. Whilst it is clear that the US economy has slowed, the rest of the world is continuing to perform solidly, with growth in Emerging Markets leading the way. Inflation remains relatively benign and we expect that monetary policy around the world will remain quite stable

    For instance, short-term real interest rates are a conventional explanatory factor for the US dollarwhich, in turn, (a) is a key factor for the price of oil and commodity prices in general, and (b) alsoaffects monetary policy and global inflation, hence interest rates.

    Airlines’ forward schedule matters. In our last three editions of Follow the seats,we were spot on for 22 out of the 28 travel trends for China tourism; five were atleast in the same direction; and only one (for China-Thailand) was vastlydifferent, due to a larger-than-expected contraction in China-Korea seats.

  with only gradual incremental change through 2007.

    How to solve this? We combine our insights with quantitative tools as statistical analysis enablesus to examine a very broad universe of assets and data and so determine potential opportunities.Moreover, we believe that, by incorporating quantitative tools in the research process, we arebetter able to avoid the cognitive biases that can lead to systematic errors in decision making.

  全世界经济前景对金融市场依旧构成支撑。纵然米利坚经济缓慢已经决定,其余国家如故展现理想,新兴市集抢先。通货膨胀仍相对温和,我们预测全球货币政策在二零零五年将保险安静,会有渐进的大幅度变动。

    Crude oil and US real interest rates: The forgotten link

  The US is on track to achieve a soft landing. The slow down in housing has affected domestic demand in the economy, and US GDP has slowed from over 3.5% growth for the first half of 2006 to around 2.5% for the past 6 months. Despite the general slow down, the positive signs are that US employment remains relatively solid and consumer expenditure is doing well. Business investment has been disappointing over the past 6 months, however there are indications that this maybe turning around. Recent data releases in April and early May for factory orders, business confidence and inventory to shipments ratios are turning stronger. The risk of the US slow down turning into an outright recession exists, but at this stage we would place only a small probability on such a risk.

    As the oil price is also a reflection of speculative flows, the US real interest rate acts as anopportunity cost (just as it does for other risk assets). We believe that this reflects the fact that –as commodities yield zero in real terms – demand for commodities increases when the realfunding rate falls low or turns negative.

  U.S.A.经济正走向软着陆。房产市镇放慢已经对本国必要变成了震慑,美国GDP增加率从2005年上7个月的3.5%暴跌至千古八个月的2.5%。除了全体放慢之外,积极的功率信号则囊括美利坚合众国就业率仍相对景气而顾客支付也在造好。过去3个月商业投资令人大失所望,可是也是有迹象显暗中提示况正在扭转。一月份和八月底发表的数额显示,工厂订单、商业信心和仓库储存货运比等数字都在走强。U.S.经济的减缓演化成二遍大萧疏的只怕性是存在的,但如今大家认为这种高危机产生的只怕好低。

汇丰晋信。    In addition, a fall in US real interest rates generally means a weaker US dollar which is alsopositive for commodity prices (and vice versa).

  Outside of the US, the economic picture is positive. European activity continues to roll on at a solid pace with European GDP likely to expand by close to 3% this year. Europe is seeing strong demand across both consumer and business activity. Unemployment is declining in Europe and is supporting general confidence. In Japan, economic data remains somewhat sluggish. The economy is likely to expand at around 2%, which is not bad growth for Japan, but with a general improvement in structural conditions in Japan, at this stage of the cycle Japan should be growing at an even stronger rate.

    Charts 1and 2show the strong historical relationship among US real interest rates, the US dollar,and the WTI oil price: for instance, the sharp rise in US real interest rates in 2013-2014triggereda fall in WTI oil prices, which was exacerbated by OPEC’s new production policy in 2015.Thus, on a first look, the strong co-movement between the US dollar and WTI crude oilappears sufficient to quantify the current price of crude oil and, using BNP Paribas forecasts forthe major EM and DM FX rates, project the direction of WTI in the coming months.

  除美利坚联邦合众国以外,内地经济时局比较正面。亚洲经济持续稳步进步,亚洲GDP增长速度二〇一六年有一点都不小希望周边3%,本地花费和小购买贩卖必要都很有力,无业率下跌对完全信心爆发了援救功用。在东瀛,经济数据仍显得有一些落伍。二零一六年划算增长速度可能会达到2%,那对扶桑的话是三个不易的增加,但思索到结构性条件的宏观立异,处在这一周期阶段的日本经济应该有更为庞大的巩固。

  Emerging market activity is solid, led by China which has seen GDP expand at over 11% in the first quarter. India, the rest of Asia, Latin America and Eastern Europe are

  also performing well. The challenge in emerging markets is to contain the level of growth in order to prevent overheating. We have seen numerous tightening measures this year in China and India where interest rates were lifted and bank reserve requirements tightened. And rates are higher in Mexico and a number of other economies. We see little risk of a major deterioration in emerging markets growth as generally policy is not restrictive in any of the major economies and with some exceptions like India, there are no real threats from rising inflation.

  新兴市肆现象牢固,中华人民共和国起了引领效应,第一季度GDP增加率超越11%。印度共和国、欧洲其余地段、拉美以及东欧都有正当表现。新兴市场面对的挑战是适当调节增加的水准防止出现经济过热。我们早已观看今年以来中中原人民共和国和印度共和国纷纷出台紧缩措施,包含加息和增加积储盘算金率。墨西哥和任何七个经济体都升高了利率。新兴市镇抓好不太大概出现大幅度回调,因为大概主要国家的布置都不是约束性的,而在有的例外的国度如印度,通货膨胀上升并不持有真正的威慑。

  The outlook for equity markets is positive. In a soft landing environment that we are seeing in the US, markets have historically done well. This is because in a soft landing, interest rates stay steady or even decline and growth whilst being softer is still generally positive. This is what we are seeing in the US with first quarter profit results showing year on year growth of around 8%, significantly ahead of investor expectations which prior to the earnings season were for 3% growth. Outside of the

  US, conditions are even stronger due to better growth prospects but with relatively contained interest rate policy. Valuation levels remain reasonable. Whilst we have seen strong equity market performance and many markets are reaching new highs, earnings growth has also been strong around the globe. In China, for example, profits are growing well in excess of 20%.

  股票商场前景相比较乐天。在经济产出软着陆的美利哥,股市长势获得历史性突破。因为在软着陆中,利率仍旧牢固以致在下降而经济增进就算相比较疲惫但仍可以基本保险前进。那就是大家所观察的美利坚合众国家足球队队员下的景观,第一季度毛利比一年前提升了8%,大大超乎了投资人在财务报告发表季度在此之前推测的3%。美利坚同同盟者以外的别的市集现象更加好,增进前景更为强劲,可是利率政策相对比较严慎。价值评估水平雅俗共赏。就算股票市肆表现强势何况不菲市集都到达历史高位,满世界毛利拉长也在春兰秋菊。举个例子在中中原人民共和国赚钱拉长大幅度超越百分之二十五。

  Thus, as the level of earnings has broadly kept up with the level of price movement, valuation levels remain reasonable. Also, interest rates are relatively low, offering little competition to equities. Significant mergers and acquisition activity as well as private equity transactions are providing a significant boost to liquidity and equity market demand. Within equities, our geographical preference is for Asia, Europe and emerging markets where we expect the strongest earnings performance and also an attractive mix of valuations. We are not negative on US or Japan in absolute terms, it is just that we expect them to lag the other regions.

  由此,毛利增长速度差不离上能够跟上股票价格上升的步伐,评估价值仍居于理想的等级次序。同一时间利率档期的顺序相对仍处在低位,对股票市场不结合竞争。规模巨大的合一活动以及私募股权交易给流动性加强拉动并且慰勉了股票市场须要。就股票市集来讲,大家更注重于欧洲、亚洲和新生商场,在这一个市集将会产出最为强劲的毛利展现实情而且估值具备魅力。大家并非对美利哥恐怕东瀛市集完全否定,只不过它们将走下坡路于另外地区的表现。

  We expect bond yields to range trade over the coming few months. US bonds have discounted the slow down in US activity. For yields to decline much further we would

  need to expect a recession, which is not our core outlook. The upside for yields is also quite limited in the near term with little pressure on inflation and the US economy still adjusting to the housing down turn. Hence, our base case outlook that bonds will generally perform in line with yield, with little prospect of meaningful capital movement.

  大家揣度在今后的多少个月股票收益率将有限支撑震荡。美国家公期货已经反映出经济缓慢的地方。收益率一连下滑必要一轮经济衰退,但那并非咱们的为主预期。方今股票(stock)报酬率的回涨空间也相比较单薄,因为来自通胀的压力一丝一毫而United States经济正在对房产市廛的低迷作调度。所以,我们的主题境念是证券表现将挑寿春与报酬率一致,不太会现身实质性的波动。

  In the foreign exchange markets, the US dollar has continued to struggle as growth has underperformed in the US. However, the US dollar is relatively cheap against European currencies and also against most of its major Latin American trading partners. With the downturn in the US well discounted by investors, we do not expect

  the dollar to suffer major weakness in the near term. The clear opportunity in foreign exchange, in our view, remains in Asia where Asian currencies are cheap. These economies are doing well with huge positive current account balances and foreign exchange reserve accumulations. The main factor standing in the way of more rapid Asian currency appreciation is that Asian central banks do not like to see significant currency rate adjustments over short periods of time. They will though accept a gradual adjustment as we have seen over the past year in China for the Renminbi, as well as Korea, India and most of the Asean economies. We expect Asian currencies to continue their gradual appreciation over the medium term.

  在外汇市镇,因为美国经济表现落后,加元仍在不利前行。不过美金相对美元显得低价,对其拉丁美洲的首要交易友人货币来说也是那样。美利坚联邦合众国经济缓慢已经被投资人充裕贯彻,由此大家并不认为这两日英镑还有或者会见前境遇严重的贬值。在我们看来,外汇市场最为令人瞩指标投资机缘在亚洲,澳洲货币仍展现平价。这么些国家经济表现能够,平时项目余额和外汇储备都有数以百万计的堆成堆。阻止南美洲钱币越来越快升值的根本因素是亚洲中央银行并不乐意看见汇率在长时间内冒出相当的大调节,它们更乐于承受渐进的调动,正如神州毛曾外祖父过去几年经验的那么,还应该有南韩、India和大部分东南亚国家订车笠之盟家。我们预测早先时代内亚洲货币将保险逐步升值的步履。

  期货(Futures)战略

  美国  回顾

  In April, the S&P 500 Index rose 4.3%. However, it was the Dow Jones Industrial Average that stole the headlines as it passed the 13,000 level for the first time in its history. The index was supported by strong earnings from its small number of components. The broader market indices also benefited from the positive trend to corporate earnings. The economic outlook provided further positive momentum towards the end of the month as the Federal Reserve’s ‘beige book’ of economic conditions noted that the US economy had shown modest growth and that consumer prices had been largely stable, conditions that are consistent with US rates remaining on hold. The end of the month saw data released that showed US Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 1.3% in the first quarter of 2007, below the forecast for 1.8%. Despite the weakness of the data, its strong consumer spending component helped to negate part of the disappointment.

  十一月份史坦普500指数上涨了4.3%。可是道Jones指数表现尤为抢眼——突破了1两千点的历史新高,少数成份股的无敌毛利增加拉动其表现。更广阔的商城指数也一样收益于集团盈利的进步势头。经济展望正面,直到月尾都为市镇更为高涨提供重力。美联储的经济展望褐皮书突显U.S.A.经济获得了温和拉长,成本物价大要平稳,那些准则都与保险利率不变的主宰相符合。月首公布的数目突显花旗国GDP在二〇〇六年首季加强了1.3%

  ,较预期的1.8%为低。就算数额疲弱,但花费支出的强硬表现抵消了有些失望心理。

  展望

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